The Value Thesis #1: Overworld
A detailed breakdown of Overworld's NFTs, marketing, team, and the thesis for value accrual.
The Most Anticipated
We are nearing the launch of one of the most anticipated Web3 gaming mints: the Incarna Genesis PFP mint, set to take place in just over two weeks. The Incarna mint is garnering significant attention, primarily due to the project's effective use of suspense to create excitement. This tactic echoes the approach used in Zynga’s Sugartown and is a strategy derived from Yuga Labs.
Overworld has been strategically releasing information in small, measured doses, gradually crafting a narrative as the mint date approaches. They reveal information progressively, akin to unveiling chapters of a book, while deliberately leaving certain aspects undisclosed. It’s an approach that sparks curiosity and speculation about future developments.
In this article, we will investigate the hints dropped by Overworld and discuss both the known elements and the remaining mysteries surrounding Overworld and its impending mint.
The Wolves DAO received access to the Incarna Genesis PFPs (IGPs) pre-sale. Despite this, we will aim to provide an unbiased view of the project.
Disclaimer: none of this should be taken as financial advice, DYOR.
The Game
The most intriguing aspect of Overworld remains its game, which, to this point, is shrouded in secrecy. Not a single screenshot or trailer has been released to give a glimpse of the gameplay. What is known is that the game is categorized as a 3D multiplayer RPG/cross-platform RPG. It promises features where players can build their own towns, embark on adventures, and engage in combat with enemies.
A sandbox RPG set in a fantasy universe that features a brand-new combat system never seen before.
~ Jeremy Horn
The game's artistic direction, while not fully revealed, has been hinted at in cinematic trailers posted on Overworld's Twitter account. Jeremy, the founder of the project, has previously indicated that the game's style aims to blend Anime and Western aesthetics, drawing a parallel to the visual approach of the Castlevania series on Netflix.
While the strategy of releasing minimal information about the game has its advantages, it is also a point of criticism from the Wolves. This approach can lead to a mismatch between expectations and reality, as has been observed in similar situations in the past. Such discrepancies could potentially impact NFT values adversely. As of now, it seems improbable that Overworld will unveil in-game media before the launch, leaving investors to make their decisions without a full picture of the game.
The Incarna PFP Mint
Details surrounding the mint:
Supply: 6000
Mint Price: 0.15
Mint date: 15-Dec
Phases: pre-sale, guaranteed, and FCFS.
In the current 'pre-bull' market conditions, over 95% of mints at this price and supply level would likely not be successful. However, there is a strong belief that this particular mint will sell out completely. According to a small survey within the Wolves community, there is a 60% confidence that the floor price will at least double post-mint. Further details on this will be discussed in the marketing section.
Additionally, the Wolves' involvement in the pre-sale round, where funds were sent to a smart contract, has provided some insight. It is estimated that around 3,000 PFPs, which account for 50% of the total, were sold during this pre-sale phase.
Math: 300 * 0.15 E = 450 ETH (+ ~23 ETH remaining for gas associated with distribution per community).
Utility
The Incarna PFP mint will offer the following benefits to its holders:
A claim to the $MCNT airdrop
Access to exclusive NFTs purchased with $MCNT (Domains, Workers, Forge, etc.)
Boosting $MCNT yield by staking an Incarna
$MCNT rewards when equipped and playing the game
Participation in the upcoming affiliate program
Governance rights
Access to the private Discord
Is there Value Accrual?
The current focus in Web3 gaming is heavily on gaming tokens, which makes the potential to earn $MCNT tokens the most compelling aspect of the NFT. There will be a gap of approximately three months between the PFP NFT sale and the Token Generation Event (TGE). It's not yet clear if NFT holders will have the option to soft-stake their NFTs and earn rewards in the form of token allocations prior to the TGE. However, such an option would likely motivate holders to keep their assets.
The primary way Incarna Genesis PFPs build value beyond the initial airdrop is through their staking feature and the associated reward mechanism. If the game succeeds, demand for the tokens—and by extension, the NFTs—will likely increase, leading to enhanced value. For further details on this concept and examples of value accrual, refer to the article previously published on this topic.
MCNT-exclusive NFTs
The release dates for the MCNT-exclusive NFT collections featured on the roadmap are yet to be determined. It is speculated that these NFTs will be integral to the game's resource generation and crafting systems, following a model similar to that of factory NFTs.
Furthermore, the image provided below indicates that MCNT-exclusive NFTs will be exclusively claimable by Incarna holders. The specific utility of these NFTs could significantly influence the demand for Incarnas, depending on their exact functions and benefits.
Supporter Key Collection
Apart from the upcoming Incarna Genesis PFPs, there is an existing collection known as Supporter Keys. These NFTs offer the following utilities:
Exclusive access to future events
Free airdrop to all future paid NFTs
Including the Incarna Genesis PFPs, Land, Workers, etc.
Tier 1-WL positions
Double the $MCNT token airdrop and token generation per Incarna Genesis PFP held
The details on the boost for holding 1 key or multiple is not final yet
Xterio pre-sale spot for $XTER + a token aidrop
This exclusive collection consists of only 100 keys, with a circulating supply of 79. They were distributed through Overworld's #Worthy program, which aimed to reward the project's most 'valuable' supporters.
Since the launch of Overworld's marketing campaign in early November, the Supporter Keys have seen a significant increase in value. They rose from an initial floor price of 0.625E to 8.88E. The success and high floor price of these Supporter Keys are strong indicators of the potential establishment of a robust floor price for the Incarna collection.
Manacite ($MCNT Token)
Manacite, also known as the $MCNT token, will serve as the primary token within Overworld’s ecosystem, utilized for:
Buying ecosystem NFTs
Obtaining in-game assets
In-game actions such as crafting
Trading with other players
The token can be earned through:
Airdrops
Soft staking of the NFTs
Gameplay when an Incarna is equipped
The token is planned for release in the first quarter of 2024. Jeremy Horn has mentioned significant launches on major CEXes like Binance and Coinbase. Given that XTERIO is backed by Binance Labs, it is almost certain that the token will be listed on Binance, which is the leading exchange in terms of trading volume.
Distribution
Supply: 20,000,000,000 $MCNT
Distribution:
Players rewards: 65%
Ecosystem/treasury: 20%
Community/marketing: 15% (including a 3% token airdrop)
Vesting
Regarding the vesting schedule, the provided graph outlines the timeline for $MCNT's vesting. From this data, the following conclusions can be drawn:
Estimated supply at TGE: $4B (20%)
There are no cliffs
Game rewards and ecosystem/treasury tokens unlock gradually and have one large unlock every year
Marketing and community tokens unluck linearly
Token rewards last for five years
Funding
Xterio, the parent organization of Overworld, has conducted the following funding rounds:
First raise: $40M in August 2022 led by Fun Plus, FTX, and XLPA.
Second raise: $15M in July 2023 led by Binance Labs.
Xterio has allocated $2.5 million of its funds to the Overworld studio. In addition, Overworld is projected to generate approximately $1.85 million from the Incarna NFT sale, plus there will be additional funds through its token sale. This results in an estimated treasury of around $4.35 million, plus the value from token unlocks, which could significantly enhance the treasury. However, the initial budget of $4.35 million raises questions about the scope of the game development, as a comprehensive RPG can require much more substantial funding.
Conversely, Xterio is a well-resourced organization and may provide additional investment to Overworld if necessary. Additionally, the involvement of Binance Labs is intended to expedite the development of games and the integration of AI in Xterio’s gaming projects, potentially enabling them to offer a richer gaming experience at a reduced cost.
Team
Based on the information on its LinkedIn page, Overworld Studio lists having between 11 to 50 employees, but only 6 profiles are linked to the page. Regarding the studio's leadership, only the LinkedIn profiles of the founder and creative director are accessible for more detailed investigation.
Jeremy Horn - Founder
Highlights:
Associate Producer at Ubisoft (6 months)
Producer at Origins (2 years, 2 months)
Lead Producer at Gameloft (2 years, 6 months)
Working on a few top-grossing games such as Oregon Trail: American Settler and Ice Age Village
General Manager at TinyCo, a Jam City Company (3 years, 3 months)
Led and managed hit titles including:
Family Guy The Quest for Stuff
Marvel: Avengers Academy
Futurama: Worlds of Tomorrow
Vice President of Business and Strategy at Jam City (4 years, 11 months)
Vice President, Head of Innovation at Funplus (1 year, 10 months)
Co-founder of Xterio since February 2022
Jeremy possesses a robust background in the gaming industry, boasting over ten years of experience. Throughout his career in gaming, he has undertaken several leadership roles, demonstrating his proficiency in guiding and managing teams effectively. Notably, he has previously played a pivotal role in launching several successful mobile games, an area that appears to be his specialty.
James Hall - Creative Director
Highlights:
Concept Artist at Gameloft (1 year, 7 months)
Working on a few of the same games as Jeremy, including Oregon Trail: American Settler and Ice Age Village
Senior Designer at Zhurosoft (2 years, 4 months)
A game studio where he worked on Monster Kingdom 2
Lead UI/UX at Section Studios (6 months)
A Creative Game Development and Art Solutions company.
Senior Production Artist at Golden Rat Studios (6 months)
A social gaming studio
Art Director at Hitbox, LLC (now Next Generation Esports) (1 year and 7 months)
Leading the internal and external art teams of an unannounced multi-platform project
Visual Design Director at Krafton (2 years and 7 months)
Directing and overseeing the creative design and strategy direction for Global PUBG IP marketing
Senior Global Art Director at Krafton (9 months)
Joined XTERIO and Overworld as the Creative Director in May 2022
James brings a considerable amount of experience as a creative in the gaming industry. His most notable contributions include his time at Gameloft as a concept artist for several popular mobile games, and his role at Krafton where he managed the global marketing for PUBG's intellectual property. Collectively, these experiences make James an ideal fit for his current position.
Marketing Campaign
Starting on November 3, Overworld launched a six-week marketing campaign focused on promoting the Incarna mint. Key highlights of this campaign include:
An animated trailer was released on Nov 3 to promote the mint.
A questing/point system where participants earn points through interactions, with the potential to redeem these points for a spot on the whitelist.
Several posts emphasizing the concept of scarcity, with messages like:
“Act fast! Land is limited!”
“Complete today's quest and secure your WL spot before it's gone!”
“Exclusive to GENESIS INCARNA HOLDERS with $MNCT”
A ‘tag a friend’ initiative that awards points in the questing system.
The release of "Overworld pt. 1", the first cinematic story trailer.
The release of "Overworld pt. 2", the second cinematic story trailer.
Artwork accompanied by descriptions to enrich the world and lore of the game.
An aggressive push for the token launch
A reward campaign encouraging participation in various spaces.
A campaign rewarding individuals who add ‘Overworld’ to their name.
Overworld employs a multifaceted strategy that includes immersive world-building through animations and artwork, fostering virality by encouraging social sharing, and creating a sense of scarcity around their PFP mint. Additionally, they capitalize on the allure of mystery, keeping the community eagerly anticipating what comes next. This approach has proven highly effective, as evidenced by their impressive social engagement metrics.
TomXP, a member of the Wolves DAO and creator of GamesLab, estimates a 91% likelihood of the mint selling out. This estimation is based on various factors such as the level of attention and momentum, the founder's reputation, the utility of the NFT, and mint price, among others. The full analysis, which is recommended for a more comprehensive understanding, can be found here.
Jeremy Horn’s Involvement
Overworld is often closely associated with its founder, Jeremy Horn. Data from Gameslab has previously shown that founders who are active and engaged with their community tend to increase revenue per community member. This is because a founder's high involvement often builds trust, boosting confidence in purchasing an NFT, as it signifies attention, which translates to liquidity.
Jeremy Horn, the founder of Overworld, is particularly active in community engagement:
He frequently participates in various spaces using his personal account.
He actively comments on posts related to Web3 gaming.
He responds to nearly every post about Overworld.
He quotes and interacts with various posts related to Web3 gaming.
He retweets content about Overworld.
His consistent social engagement keeps him and Overworld prominently in the community's consciousness. Moreover, by interacting so closely with the community, he demonstrates his commitment to the project's followers, reinforcing the trust and confidence people have in both Jeremy and Overworld.
Risks
There are two primary risks that could impact the success of Overworld. The first risk is the potential for the game to be underwhelming. As previously noted, community expectations for Overworld may be exceptionally high, making it challenging to deliver an experience that meets these inflated anticipations, particularly given the game's development budget.
The second risk involves the possibility of the gaming token narrative losing its momentum. As discussed in a prior article, crypto investors often base their decisions on pattern recognition. This means that as long as gaming tokens remain successful, investor confidence in these assets is likely to persist. Conversely, if a highly anticipated ICO underperforms, it could lead to a decline in the gaming token narrative. Given that the value of the Incarna PFP is largely tied to this narrative, such a shift could pose a significant risk.
Conclusion
The Incarna Genesis Mint stands a good chance of being a sell-out success, driven by several key factors:
The effective use of mystery surrounding the Overworld game.
Solid utility, particularly in alignment with the prevalent Web3 gaming focus on tokens.
The presence of a high-value existing collection, suggesting a potential for higher floor prices.
The anticipation of a favorable return on investment linked to the upcoming token launch.
Integration within the XTERIO ecosystem, benefiting from connections to various projects and credible backers.
A well-regarded founder with a proven track record in launching successful mobile games.
A highly effective marketing campaign, as evidenced by robust social engagement.
An actively engaged founder who maintains Overworld’s relevance and trust among potential investors.
However, the project isn't without its risks:
The game may fall short of the extremely high expectations set by its mystery and limited information.
Relatively modest funding for the project's scope.
Limited public knowledge about the team beyond the founder and creative director.
While Jeremy Horn has experience with mobile games, his expertise in PC gaming is unproven, and the gaming platform for Overworld remains unclear.
The risk of the gaming token narrative losing steam, potentially reducing the value of the NFTs.
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